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Monday, February 18, 2013

The 2013 Academy Awards: A Stage for "What If" Moments


Next Sunday the Academy Awards becomes a stage for the great “what if” moments of the year. What if Argo wins best picture without a director nomination? What if a young girl beats the big girls for best actress?

Pomp and circumstance aside, here’s another great “what if” scenario. What if you were an entertainment marketing executive that took a break from the business five years ago? I mean a real break. Like, off the grid. You took a five-year trek in the Himalayas. And you re-entered the business on Academy Awards night, 2013. I’m going to argue that in terms of movies and opening theatrical movies, not much has really changed. But after that, let's look at three things that would completely shock this poor man or woman:
  1.  Viewer sentiment owns the product: The Internet and social media now completely rule everything that happens after the opening weekend. Two of the best picture nominees (Silver Linings, Zero Dark Thirty) rated 90 and above on Flixster/Rotten Tomatoes. Both of those movies don’t fit the Hollywood model at all. Both followed more of an arthouse build strategy.
  2. What happens during the ceremony actually resonates. If someone makes an ass of themselves next Sunday night, it will still be talked about a week later. It will be documented a week later. If someone is off the chart charming or gorgeous, it will be all over YouTube for weeks. The actors matter off the stage these days. They prejudice the perception of the film, and as we said, perception is everything.
  3. Your secondary market is digital: Whether you want to trot a Les Mis out to a wider amount of screens or if you want to amp up its presence in the secondary markets, digital marketing is option one, and probably option two. That’s because viewer sentiment lives on the review sites like Flixster, and Rotten Tomatoes and on the information sites like IMDB and Yahoo! Movies. If you want to be at the intersection of awareness and judgment, you need to be on these sites.
Other shockers: Billy Crystal is not the host. Ben Affleck has actually become an excellent director and that’s right, people flocked to a biopic about Abraham Lincoln.